Beyond the Top 20 - My Sleeper Picks

Let's take a look beyond the Top 20 (or Top 10 in the case of the tight ends). There are a lot of interesting players who are rookies. And there are some guys who you might forget about because they're lost on a really good or really bad team, or maybe are getting their first real chance in the NFL this year.

Here's a little video with some of my sleeper picks for this year's FFL draft. We had some fun with this. Especially at the end, when I talk about kickers. :-)



Here are some thoughts on this subject that I've written down...

QBs
Trent Edwards, BUF - Watch out for Trent and the Bills this year. Not many saw him play at Stanford, but he’s good.

JT O’Sullivan, SF - He's got a swagger, and he's in a good system with Mike Martz. If he ends up as the starter, he’s a good sleeper pick.

RB
Darren McFadden, OAK – Not all college starts show up in the great shape they need to be in for the NFL. Darren did. He came in very well-conditioned, and he’s intense. He’s also being pushed by other backs in Oakland. And hey, he could be a double-threat. Let’s see if he throws a TD or two during the year.

WR
Dante Stallworth, CLE – Derek Anderson will be throwing it all over the place—to Braylon Edwards, to Kellen Winslow, and to Dante. A good sleeper pick.

DeSean Jackson, PHI - This kid can play football. Don't worry about his size, he's the real deal, and I expect a big year out of him.

TE
Kevin Boss, NYG - He was great in the Super Bowl. He was definitely making Shockey sweat a little. Now he can prove his worth over a full season.

Here's How Spotfire Works with Receivers

Check this out. I have a couple of Spotfire screens here about receivers. First the wide receivers (click on the image to enlarge it):



Randy's at the top for both points and consistency. But TO looks good, too. And I went with TO as my number one because I think he is going to have a HUGE year because of the QB, the system, and the team commitment to hard work in Dallas this year.

And here's a view of tight ends. That big green circle to the right is Kellen Winslow. You can see how consistent he is from this graphic.



So go check out Spotfire yourself. It's interactive and fun. You can take a test drive anytime you want!

The Big Boys - Let's Talk Tight Ends

A great tight end is the final piece to a great offense. I remember how fantastic it was to have Brent Jones on those great Niners teams. Today's game also has a bunch of very, very strong TEs. I've limited my picks to who I think are the Top 10.

1. Jason Witten DAL
2. Kellen Winslow CLE
3. Dallas Clark IND
4. Jeremy Shockey NO
5. Vernon Davis SF
*6. Antonio Gates SD
7. Tony Gonzalez KC
*8. Todd Heap BAL
9. Alge Crumpler TEN
10. Chris Cooley WAS

* These guys were injured when I made my picks. You can decide how important that is to you!

Here are a few more thoughts about three of these guys:
Tight Ends

1. Jason Witten, DAL – Not a tough choice. As solid a number 1 pick as Brady at quarterback.

4. Jeremy Shockey, NO - The man has something to prove, and he’s bringing a new, rededicated attitude to his new team. He'll have a great system down there, and Drew Brees will find him. His blocking for Reggie Bush will help the passing offense, too.

5. Vernon Davis, SF - I'm higher on Vernon than a lot of people. Mike Martz will help him a lot.

And here are a few words I had to say about Jason Witten and Jeremy Shockey:

Go Long - My Wide Receiver Picks

It's not tough to pick the absolute best receivers in today's game. But who is your number one? And what do you do after TO and Randy Moss?

Another BIG question here has to do with injuries. I had a little trouble here because so many of the receivers are injured as pre-season nears an end.

So I put an asterisk by the guys who are injured. I also put an asterisk by Steve Smith, who we all know has been suspended for two games.

OK, here are my picks ...

1. Terrell Owens DAL
2. Randy Moss NE
*3. Braylon Edwards CLE
4. Wes Welker NE
5. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
6. Reggie Wayne IND
*7. Chad Johnson
*8. Steve Smith CAR
*9. Marques Colston NO
*10. Andre Johnson HOU
*11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN
*12. Plaxico Burress NYG
13. Torry Holt STL
*14. Greg Jennings GB
15. Roy Williams DET
16. Santonio Holmes PIT
17. Hines Ward PIT
18. Anquan Boldin ARI
19. Calvin Johnson DET
*20. Marvin Harrison IND

I have some comments about a few of the receivers here --

1. Terrell Owens, DAL - A lot of guys have Randy Moss in this spot, but I’m going with TO. As with Romo, he’s in a great system with a great tradition, and the ‘Boys are working hard. Terell is in great shape and I’m looking for him to be a huge part of Romo’s breakout year.

2. Randy Moss, NE – Randy’s only one of a huge number of options for New England’s offense. So the overall success of this offense makes me move him below TO.

3. Braylon Edwards, CLE – He defines “go-to guy.”

4. Wes Welker, NE – See my comments about Randy. Wes is just great, but in New England he’s only one of many great options. He’s fast and he runs great routes. I love him.

9. Marques Colston, NO – He works very well with Brees. Look for a great year from him.

18. Anquan Boldin – He is so talented. Would be higher with a different quarterback.

And hey, we must have video! So here are a few more comments...

Running Backs and Spotfire

You know, it's easy to get emotional about running backs. So I've added a Spotfire screenshot here. It brings an analytical view to this process, which I think can be a big help. Average points per game is shown vertically. And the more consistent they are, the further right they are on the chart.

Spotfire is interactive and it's also fun. You should try it. Go ahead and take the Spotfire test drive.

http://spotfire.tibco.com/community/testdrive/

I've also provided some commentary in the video below about some of the RBs and why I placed them the way I did.

1. Brian Westbrook, PHI – The Spotfire analytics show that he is more consistent than Adrian Peterson. The truth is that my top three running backs are so close, you can’t go wrong with any of them.

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN – He is getting pushed hard on his own team by Chester Taylor. This gives a player a different mindset than when he’s totally secure as “the man.”

3. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD – He’s still the most talented all-around back in the NFL. But San Diego has big injury questions surrounding Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. LaDanian is going to see eight in the box a lot this year.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, BAL – Love this kid. He’s quick, fast, and explosive. He didn’t get as much love in high school (at De La Salle in the Bay Area) or at UCLA as he should have. He should get plenty after this year in the NFL.

5. Frank Gore, SF – You have to love Frank. He’ll have a good year with Mike Martz. Frank reminds me of Marshall Faulk, but more explosive. I’m going to be mentoring him a little this year. The league has discovered how good he is, so now he’s got a bull’s eye on both sides of his jersey. He will be carrying a big load once again for San Francisco.

6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – The Cal kid can be a beast. He’s really consistent, and Spotfire shows this. He’ll be great again this year.

10. Laurence Maroney, NE – This man scores touchdowns. He’s got a knack for it.

11. Julius Jones, SEA – Another good mid-round pick at number 11. He’s ready to have a great year in a good system under Holmgren. With Sean Alexander traded, Julius is now “the man.”

16. Steven Jackson, STL – A little low because he’s a big back who runs into people and he gets nicked up. It doesn’t matter how big you are in the NFL, the other guys are big, too.

Rush Rush Rush Baby!

Getting the right running backs is a huge deal, as you know.

So here we go...(* means injured right now. I leave it to you to decide how it affects your actual picks.)

1. Brian Westbrook PHI
2. Adrian Peterson MIN
*3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX
5. Frank Gore SF
6. Marshawn Lynch BUF
7. Joseph Addai IND
*8. Reggie Bush NO
*9. Ryan Grant GB
10. Laurence Maroney NE
11. Julius Jones SEA
12. Marion Barber DAL
13. Larry Johnson KC
14. Clinton Portis WAS
15. Willie Parker PIT
16. Steven Jackson STL
17. Jamal Lewis CLE
*18. Willis McGahee BAL
19. Brandon Jacobs NYG
20. Edgerrin James ARI

Some Words About My QB Picks

I won't comment on all 20 of my picks. But below are a few insights about some of the guys on the list. You can hear me talk about some of the guys at this YouTube video as well:



1. Tom Brady, NE - This is a no-brainer.

2. Drew Brees, NO – I think this is going to be New Orleans’ year. They’ve got the momentum and the system to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Drew’s going to be a big part of this.

3. Tony Romo, DAL - Jerry Jones has put him in a great position. He’s ready, he’s focused, and he’s got Deion Sanders mentoring him now. The Cowboys have good chemistry, they work hard, and hey, their tradition is real. It makes a difference.

7. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Yes, I have Aaron higher than Brett Favre. He badly wants to prove himself, and he’s working with a great offense. Remember, this kid beat USC when he was in college. I think his skills will translate well to the pros.

8. Jay Cutler, DEN - Shanahan’s system always delivers a 1,000-yard running back, and this is a big help to Jay. He’s mobile, and with the running game taking some heat off of him, he’ll be able to do what he does best.

9. Brett Favre, NYJ - On the other hand, I think things are not going to be easy for Brett. He’s in a tough, tough division and I’m not sure he’s ready to handle the microscope he’ll be under in New York.

11. John Kitna, DET - The middle of the draft is crucial in the real NFL and in Fantasy Football. So keep John in mind. He’s very consistent when he’s healthy. And he has some big (and big-time) receivers in Detroit.

18. Matt Leinart, ARI - There have been a lot of guys whose greatness in college just didn’t translate to the pro level. The game's a lot faster, and Matt’s got guys wanting to take his head off on a weekly basis in the NFL. He hasn’t proven himself to me yet.

My Fantasy League Quarterback Picks

OK, let's start with quarterbacks. Here are my Top 20.

I have an asterisk next to the guys who were injured when I made these ratings. You know the drill. Stay strong with Peyton if his injury doesn't bother you that much. If it bothers you, move on to someone else.

1. Tom Brady NE
2. Drew Brees NO
3. Tony Romo DAL
*4. Peyton Manning IND
5. Ben Roethlisberger PIT
6. Carson Palmer CIN
7. Aaron Rodgers GB
8. Jay Cutler DEN
9. Brett Favre NYJ
10. Eli Manning NYG
11. Jon Kitna DET
12. Derek Anderson CLE
*13. Donovan McNabb PHI
14. Vince Young TEN
*15. Jake Delhomme CAR
16. David Garrard JAX
17. Marc Bulger STL
18. Matt Leinart ARI
19. Jason Campbell WAS
20. Matt Schaub HOU

How I Use Spotfire Fantasy Football Test Drive

TIBCO Spotfire is, well, cool. That's it. Really cool. When this powerful analysis tool is applied to football data, it can let you explore endless statistical combinations by using a number of different filters. Like what RB scored the most fantasy points when getting under 15 carries again (how many teams now have multi-back sets?). Just to give you a taste of the tool, you can see in this picture the top performing RBs last year and some people might be surprised to see that Brian Westbrook was the best performer having just a few points less than LT, but with more consistency. You get some unexpected answers as you adjust things, and this is the point! Spotfire doesn't think for you, but it can really help your thinking.

The team pulled three years of football data into a demo that anyone can use. I've been using it to help me with my FFL predictions. One of the primary dashboards shows total fantasy points and consistency (IE, your best asset is someone who scores a lot the most often). So it can open your eyes to some guys who you might not think of at first.

Try it out - unless league champion isn't your objective this year.. Go to: The Spotfire Fantasy Footbal TestDrive site and get started!

Highlights from My Career

Here's a nice little video of me in high school, college, and the NFL. We created it for my recent induction into the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame. Enjoy!

It's Getting Exciting

There are more great players than ever in today’s NFL, and I’m starting to get excited about the coming season.

I’ve been watching a lot of players up close now that training camps have opened. Players today are faster than ever, and this speed is obvious even in practice conditions.

I still miss playing the game some days, but I don’t miss training camp for one second. No way!

Keep watching here as I combine my own thoughts with the help of Spotfire. I’ll be revealing some of my choice picks soon!

Spotfire Screen

An example of Spotfire in action. It’s a chart of dozens of current NFL running backs.
Hey, I know it’s hard to read here.

So go to http://spotfire.tibco.com/community/testdrive/

Click on the Fantasy Football tab and then the “get started” link. You’ll see the real deal there, and it’s interactive!

Fantasy Football Fundamentals

Hey, you probably wouldn’t be here if you weren’t already into Fantasy Football. But I have to tell you, I wasn’t always into it myself. So if you’re an FFL newbie, welcome!

Once I got hooked a few years ago, I found that managing an FFL team was almost as much fun as playing the game. The big difference is I haven’t hurt my hip or tweaked a knee or even jammed a finger the whole time!

So if you’re already a FFL pro, you can skip the rest of this post. But if you’re new, read on!

In Fantasy Football, you will be a team “owner” and will participate in a league. Someone will create your league, and guess what, this person is known as the commissioner. The commissioner invites other owners into the league, then each team participates in a draft.

The draft is a critical part! So be smart! In my FFL (Fantasy Football League), we draft a quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a tight end, a kicker and a defense. We also get a few bench positions. I won't be offering my opinions on the kickers and defenses (except when you’re on a real football field, stay away from them!)

Each week, my team will play head-to-head against another team in the league, with points awarded for players’ performance. You get more than one player per position, to account for injuries and to let you manage who you think will play best on any given week.

The teams with the best records advance to the playoffs, just like in the NFL. The details of all this vary from league to league. So feel free to argue with your commissioner and fellow owners about how things should play out in your league! That’s half the fun.

OK, let’s play some Fantasy Football!

My Playing Days

Having some fun during my playing days.

Post-Football

Here I am today. I love to hang out with my wife and kids. And I am into running, including the occasional marathon.

Welcome to The Roger Craig FFL Rush!

I will be adding my observations and making my predictions every week, as we enter what promises to be another Fan-Tastic NFL season.
Let’s have fun. And remember, it’s only a game! :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su5_oR7PiUY