Hey, I'm Back

Hi everyone, with Christmas coming up fast, I took a little break from the blog to take care of everyone on my shopping list. :-)

We're near the end of what I call Season Two ... the second half of the regular season. Fantasy players will have challenges now because a lot of players will be resting for the playoffs, which I call Season Three. Other players will be busting their tails to keep their jobs for next year, or to "audition" for maybe a job on a better team next year.

So the normal sit vs. start decisions get complicated. My advice is alwasy the same...look at who has been consistent and stick with them. You try too hard to pick that longshot guy and you will be disappointed most of the time.

If you have been a good general manager this year, then your fantasy results will take care of themselves. But if you have had a bad year, well you're not going to save your season with some miracle. Stay consistent, baby, that's what it's all about!

Merry Christmas

--RC 33

It Would Be Nice to Join the Elite HOF Team

I couldn't scream and jump up and down when I heard I had made HOF semi-finalist, because I was on a plane. I didn't want to get arrested or have to talk with a federal marshall!

But seriously, I was talking a little bit this week about all the things I did during my career with all those great players on the 49ers. I remember one of the highlights for me was making All-Pro as a fullback and blocking for my idol Walter Payton in the Pro Bowl. Later I made All-Pro as a running back. But you know, Coach Bill Walsh changed the game with his West Coast Offense. I was asked to do so many things in that offense, and I have nothing but great memories looking back on all that now.

Think About Pride and How It Affects Players

Fantasy players are fanatics about numbers. Me, too, and Spotfire helps me see whose numbers are the most consistent. But don't forget about pride. I don't care how much money you make, you don't want to be humiliated. You always want to perform your best for your fans, for your job security, and for the other players!

So I got into a long discussion about pride this week. Donovan McNabb is the best example. You saw what he did a week after being humiliated on national TV. Michael Turner is another one. He was second-string behind LT at San Diego. This year with Atlnata he wants to prove every week that he really is one of the best backs in the NFL.

This video has a little bit of that discussion. I also talk about Brett Favre and Frank Gore and how these guys work at the elite NFL level.

I'm Honored to Be Nominated for the HOF

Hi everyone, I took a little vacation time last week, and I hope you did, too. The Thanksgiving Holiday was great, but now I'm back to talk some more football!

You may have noticed right before the holiday that I was named one of 25 semi-finalists for induction into the Football Hall of Fame.

Here's a link to the story

It's a huge honor to be included among all these great players. And I wanted to say a big "thank-you" to all of you out there who have supported me in the past for induction into Canton. I won't lie, I would be incredibly honored to be included on the list of the NFL's all-time great players!

Keep Backing Trent Edwards

Trent Edwards has been bad lately. Eight interceptions, two fumbles, and a safety over his lsat four games. But don't give up on him. He got off to a great start, and look at the four defenses he's facing over the next weeks: KC, SF, Miami, Jets, and Denver. No disrespect to any of these guys, but I think Trent will still be a consistent performer the rest of the year.

No One Knows Anything About Drafting Quarterbacks

Isn't it funny to see three guys at the top of the QB list this week who weren't even starting at the beginning of the year? I'm talking about Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, and Shaun Hill.

I'm sure none of you drafted any of these guys haha. It juts proves that in the NFL and in all the FFL leagues none of us really knows anything about quarterbacks! Maybe we know something...but success at this position requires an amazing combination of skills, the right team, the right coaches and offense, and luck.

The thing is to look at who these guys replaced. OK, Cassel was a complete fluke because no one would have predicted that Tom Brady was going out for the season. But the other two guys replaced guys who weren't that strong to begin with.

So if you didn't pick quarterbacks who have been consistently good, solid players, then you can't complain about missing out on Kerry and Shaun. I see Shaun remaining consistent, because he's a gamer with a cool head. Kerry is having the season of his career, so good for him. He's fitting in perfectly at this stage of his career with that system.

Will Reggie Play? And Will He Be Any Good?

We'll find out tomorrow if Reggie Bush is going to play Monday night against Green Bay. This reminds of last week, when there was hope every day...but then he wasn't available. As I mentioned in my video about injuries, some are tougher than you think.

The meniscus is one of the tough ones, because you have to be able to push off your legs to have any hope as a running back in the NFL. So a bad meniscus isn't a killer if you're just walking around the office, but man, it's going to be tough for Reggie to be effective even if he plays.

Dallas Has Lost Its Chemistry

Jets and Pats, 'Boys and 'Skins, and More

Here's what I think about the Jets and Pats this Thursday, as well as what I think about a few other key games. All I can say is I wouldn't want to be a Cowboys fan this week!

My Video Take on Injuries

Here's what I think about turf toe and high ankle sprains. Ouch!!

Watch Those Injury Reports

All good fantasy players watch injury reports like a hawk. But be sure you know that some injuries are more trouble than they appear.

Take turf toe. Doesn't sound that bad. But when you get turf toe is means you have jammed your toe badly, and makes it impossible to push off. Turf toe ruins a running back's chances to be successful. Even if he plays with turf toe, he won't be effective.

The high ankle sprain is another one. Doesn't sound bad, but it is. I had one in college and it took me almost two months to recover! Again, you have to be able to push off to be effective. With a high ankle sprain, you can't.

I tell you, sometimes it's better to have a broken leg from the player's point of view. At least then, you know you can't play, and you are less likely to push things too hard as you recover.

On the other hand, quarterbacks can play even with serious dings like bad shoulders and bruised ribs. Game management is so important to QBs, they can get by if they're not in the best shape. But give a QB a thumb injury, and he's going to be terrible.

So when you look at injury reports, don't look at just how "serious" they are. Look to see how they will directly affect a player's performance.

Kurt Warner is the Joe Montana of AZ's Offense

Hey, I talk about what is wrong with the Cowboys here, as well as the Minneosota-Green Bay game (which will be real big), and how Kurt Warner is just The Man this year. Enjoy!

Change Is in the Air, Baby!

Change is definitely in the air. But you need to stay consistent. This time of year you have to be especially aware of injuries. They are part of the game and you cannot change this. What you can do is be smart about anticipating injuries and having a plan in case your guys get hurt. Change is in the air, and you better be ready!

Michael Singletary is a Warrior

Yeah, everyone wants to talk about Mike Singletary and Vernon Davis this week. This is a little off-topic for fantasy football. But here's what I think about this whole deal.

I'm So Elated for LenDale White

I talk about the return of LT and Brian Westbrook to the top of the heap here, and also have some nice words about LenDale White. And for you young running backs out there, listen to my advice on the proper care and feeding of your offensive lineman!

Big Back Syndrome is Taking Over

One big trend we're seeing is the Big Back Syndrome. As the season wears on, the large boys are starting to punish those defenses, and are holding up better than the smaller backs.

Look at the top two runhing backs this week, Steven Jackson and LenDale White. Both go about 235, and they're leading a parade of big backs in the NFL this year.

And for the season, you can definitely see the trend for big backs. You've got Clinton Portis (5-11, 221), Marion Barber (6-0, 225), Matt Forte (6-2 and an honest 220), and Frank Gore as four of the top five. I know that Frank is only 5-9, but at 217 he might be the strongest back in the league. He hits the hole HARD, and blasts a hole of his own when he doesn't see one.

Reggie Bush is the only smaller back in the top five, and look, he's hurt. I'm hoping he gets back out there real soon, but this is how life in the NFL can be sometimes.

So as the season wears on, put your big boys in the game. They'll score consistent points for you.

Think Over the Long Haul

So many FFL players start overthinking the problem at this point in the season. We're almost halfway through and there have been a lot of surprising results in recent weeks. For fantasy players, this leads to outsmarting yourself a lot of time with your sit/start decisions, and how you use waiver wires and trades.

My advice is to stay consistent. Look at the top six or seven in each category and they're not changing much week to week. There will always be a couple of guys who come out of nowhere each week, and if you picked those guys you get to look smart and talk some stuff.

But real success is based on consistency, in fantasy football and the NFL. This is what Spotfire does for me. It shows who is most consistent, and then I can match consistent offensive performers up against the defenses they face each week, and make my decisions that way. I don't like just rolling the dice.

Hey, this worked for me as a player, too. I only missed two games to injury in 15 years in the NFL, because I wanted to be known as a guy who gave the same consistent effort every week. Didn't matter if I was banged up a little, or if it was going to be real cold, or even if I was facing real monsters like Lyle Alzado or Lawrence Taylor and Harry Carson. I wanted to be consistent--and you should be consistent in the way you run your team.

Leadership

I cover a lot of different things in this video. I talk about good clubhouse leaders, I give you my take on a famous Ronnie Lott story, and hey, Mike Martz, Give Frank Gore the Ball!

The NFC East Was Like the Stock Market Last Week

OK, so I admit the NFC East got hammered. Here are some of my thoughts on Reggie Bush too.

Injuries Taking a Toll

As I mentioned earlier, the injuries start to mount up around this time of the year. But my advice is to stick with your consistent players even if they are dinged up a little. True winners know how to play with a little pain, and it's more of a mental battle than a physical one.

Look at Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Peyton finally admitted that he had additional surgery on his knee, and Aaron's shoulder is hurting bad. But they are both still being very consistent.

Aaron is playing angry because he needs to prove that he deserves Brett Favre's old job. Remember, he was a very good QB in college at Cal, and his success should be no surprise.

Peyton is playing angry because the Colts still don't get the respect they deserve, and his little brother went and grabbed a bunch of the glory last year. As competitive as those two brothers are, you know that Peyton is just burning to win another Super Bowl.

Speaking of playing mad, look at Reggie Bush. He is on a mission to prove that he is the real deal. When a guy comes in with that much hype, it's almost impossible to blow people away at first. But Reggie is seeing the field better, he's playing with purpose, and he loves the end zone. The most important thing though is that the combination of Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, and now Deuce McAllister actually makes it easier for Reggie to rack up fantasy points and lead New Orleans to a great season.

Back to injuries, LT has been banged up, but he's getting better. And remember, I like to look at the whole offense when I'm looking for consistent performers. So Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are doing great, because of that sophisticated offense that Norv Turner puts together.

You might be worred about Marion Barber the way he just loves to hit and take hits. Normally, I would worry about him too. But don't. When Jerry Jones got Roy Williams and added another great weapon to that offense, this will keep Marion from having too much pressure. He'l stay consistent.

"Hey Mike Martz, Give Frank Gore the Ball!"

The Eagles were the only NFC East team to do well last week. But a lot of this was because the Niners just collapsed in the fourth quarter. And they collapsed because Frank Gore didn't get the ball enough.

Mike Martz has brought an exciting offense to the 49ers. But he's putting too much pressure on JT O'Sullivan, and not enough on Frank.

Look at Frank's fantasy stats. He's the number three back in the league. He's a bull who gets every yard possible. He's the kind of guy that guys love to block for, and the kind of guy that makes everyone around him better.

I've been mentoring him a little this year, and he is keeping himself in great shape. This is important, because as the season grinds on, running backs start to get dinged up.

But Frank is fine. He needs the ball on a consistent basis in every quarter of the game. He can run and he can catch passes.

Hey Mike Martz, give Frank Gore the ball! Every quarter! All of my fantasy buddies who picked him will love you for this!

NFC East Lays an Egg

I should have known last week that something bad would happen to the NFC East after I said so many great things about these teams. Looks like the "On Any Given Sunday" theory kicked in, and made the NFC East look bad.

No one should give up on these teams, though, or their players. Take the Cowboys as a great example: Jerry Jones is the kind of owner who decides what the stories will be. Everyone was talking about Romo being hurt and Adam Jones being suspended, and there goes Jerry picking up Roy Williams.

So now Dallas has two huge threats at wide receiver. These guys are like basketball players, man. They can reach over you and "dunk" on most defensive backs anytime they want.

Dallas should also be OK at quarterback. I heard this morning that Romo might play. But even if he doesn't Brad Johnson is a very solid vet who knows how to win. He thew for more than 4,000 yards one year. He's won a Super Bowl. And he has more than 25,000 career yards passing.

I played with Brad near the end of my career in Minnesota, and he is a good man and a good QB. So stick with any picks you have from the 'Boys, get Roy Williams in there every week, and don't give up on any of your guys from the NFC East.

The Giants Are Playing Like They Want Another Super Bowl

"Maybe Reggie Will Do 1000/1000/1000"

Here are my thoughts on running back committees, Reggie Bush, and a few other things.

Week 5 - Spotfire Spots Consistency

What have we learned now that we're five weeks into the 2008 NFL season?

* The main thing I've learned is to trust Spotfire. You are starting to see the same names appear week in and week out in the season leader stats. Spotfire spots this consistency, not only for the top players but through the entire range. Look over to the left of this blog, and take the Test Drive!

* It's good to see Aaron Rodgers hanging tough. I picked him a little higher than Brett Favre this year, and he managed to get back ahead of Brett this week, even though the Packers lost their game.

* Hey, break up the Falcons! And definitely break up the Dolphins!

* To get serious, let's look at the NFC East. This division was tough as nails as far back as I remember. This year it might be as tough as it's ever been. Fantasy players really need to start to look at these matchups, too. The Cowboys and Eagles already had one great game against each other, and now the Giants have shown they can have a monster game. Add a hugely improved Washington to the mix, and there will be some great games--with some great fantasy numbers--each time all these hated rivals play each other.

* It's been great to see Frank Gore stay up on the list. It looks like the 49ers are going to be an up-and-down team this year, but Mike Martz and JT O'Sullivan have brought some real offense to San Francisco for the first time in awhile. I've been mentoring Frank, telling him how to keep his body together through a long NFL season, and he has been flat-out consistent--and real good.

* And here's my best wishes to Anquan Boldin and all his teammates and loved ones. Receivers have always taken some big, big hits, and the one he took was more like a car accident than a football injury. This may sound funny coming from a 15-year NFL veteran, but life is more important than football. Head injuries are nothing to mess around with, so Anquan, take care of yourself and don't come back until you're truly ready.

Running Back Committees

We've seen a lot of "running back committees" recently. Teams doing this include the Giants, Cowboys, Pats, Raiders, and Saints. I can tell you that the players don't like it. Any decent running back wants to be "the man."

But the coaches like it for a lot of reasons. It gives them different looks, it can reduce the risk of injury for each individual back, and a lot of coaches think this is a motivator. When you have a guy on the sidelines pushing you for your job, you might try harder.

The problem with this is that it can cause the backs to try to do too much. They can simply start running as fast as they can, rather than picking holes, getting a rhythm, and figuring out the defenses. So I'd warn the coaches to be careful here.

For us fantasy players, it's pretty simple. Go with the guys who are brought in to score the TDs! Or, if you got Reggie Bush, count on him to return a few punts for touchdowns, and you're all set!

Hey, maybe Reggie will be the first member of the 1000/1000/1000 club. (Devin Hester led the NFL last year with 650+ punt return yards). On second thought, I better not put this kind of pressure on the kid. He's doing great already.

Week 4 Highlights

The marquee matchup between Frank Gore and Reggie Bush didn't happen the way I thought it would. But as you've probably heard, I gave Deuce McCallister a call after New Orlean's great win over the 49ers. It was fantastic to see him back out there and looking great.

His performance backs up what I've been saying all year--the Saints are the real deal with a lot of weapons. The 49ers keyed on Reggie and slowed him down a little. But now, if Deuce can stay healthy, teams will have to key on him as well. This will help Reggie, and it will do great things for Drew Brees.

Six touchdown passes? You can't be serious, Brett! With that performance, Brett moves up to number 3 in the season's rankings. Aaron Rodgers has dropped out of the top five for the first time. If his shoulder is not hurt too badly, he'll remain consistent, though.

It was good to see Larry Johnson re-emerge this week, too. I had hm picked as number 13 in my list of picks. I think he'll be a solid contributor, but I still want to wait and see if he'll crack the top five consistently.

The Patriots are now a mystery. Their upcoming game against the 49ers should be a decent test, because the Niners have a decent defense. I am still counting on Randy Moss to put up some consistent numbers. But the Pats won't truly be tested until they back in there against their nasty division rivals.

The Legacy of Bill Walsh Lives On

I talk about Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards here, and how ready they are for the NFL. And I have to tip my hat one more time to Bill Walsh, who helped Trent when he was at Stanford. I also talk about Parcells, Randy Moss, and a few other guys.

"Brandon Marshall is on a Mission"

Here are some of my thoughts on video about some guys on a mission: Anquan, Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler. I also talk about Spotfire here. Hey, it's fun sitting around talking about football!

Waiver Wire

Well, we've had three full weeks of the season. And the byes are starting to kick in. Most of us fantasy players are thinking about trades and the waiver wire as a result. I'm using Spotfire analytics to help me. Of course, everyone else in my league is doing the same thing, so I just have to be a little smarter than they are!

But what Spotfire does is present a beautiful picture, a visualization, of what's going on. The top NFL teams and FFL teams get over the top because of their mid-level picks, and this is where Spotfire is helping me compare a guy who may be number 12 versus a guy who may be number 16, for example.

And I can also visualize how these players will do against whatever defense they are facing. This is helping me decide not only who to play but who I'm trying to steal, whoops, I mean procure, from some of my FFL competitors!

Roger Goodell is Good for the NFL

I said it last week, and I'll say it again: Roger Goodell is doing great things for the NFL. He's bringing a renewed sense of discipline, which is great when you consider all the great, great young players in the game today. Look at the season's Top Five to the left of my blog. So many very young players, with the occasional old guy like Brett :-)

What young players need to realize is that everybody is fast and everybody is a great player in the NFL. You can just show up and get by on raw talent at this level. Even a guy like Reggie Bush. He was just running around there like he was still in college last year. Now, he's learned how the game flows in this league, and he's on pace to join Marshall Faulk and me in the 1000/1000 club.

But this new sense of discipline applies to the vets as well. I think you can look at Terrell Owens and see that he knows what he has to do to be a winner. Did you see some of the blocks he threw last week against Green Bay? I'm telling you, he first learned that with the 49ers, as part of a tradition that John Taylor established.

Ask Jerry Rice, he'll tell you that a lot of his success was because John Taylor was downfield just crushing people. No matter what you may think of Terrell, he has always been a team player when he's on the field. And now you can see this renewed discipline with him.

This is why I also think Randy Moss will be OK this year. Randy has found great success in New England with its team concept. The Pats have a bye week, and this will give Randy a chance to work out his timings with Matt Cassel.

But I'll say it again. This commitment to discipline and top performance starts at the top with Roger Goodell.

"Frank Gore Will be Watching Reggie Bush"

You can bet that Frank and Reggie will be watching either other when the Niners and Saints play this week-end. It reminds me of when Eric Dickerson and I used to compete to see who was the better back. You really turn into a fan during games like this, and I'm looking forward to watching this one.

Don't Give Up on Randy Moss

Randy will be fine once he gets used to his new quarterback. And hey, I like what Roger Goodell is doing for this league. His focus on discipline and playing the game the right way has already resulted in some fantastic games so far.

DeSean Can Play, Man!

Having some fun in the studio here. I mentioned that I still like DeSean Jackson, 'cause the kid can really play. And I know a bunch of the vets got in his face about his stupid mistake. Time to move on from that. I have some other thoughts in this video as well.

More Playoff Intensity in Week 2

OK, so let's talk about some of the individual performances in Week 2.

* I'm gonna keep talking about Brian Westbrook and how Spotfire identified him to me as the most consistent back in the league. He's part of a great offense, and he's going to keep these numbers up all season long.

* Eddie Royal looks like the real deal. So I know someone has already picked him up in your league, but trade for him if you can. He's gonna continue to benefit from Shanahan's ability to create a balanced attack, and Jay Cutler looks to be finally making Denver fans forget about Elway, at least a little bit.

* Tony Scheffler's the number 1 tight end right now. He'll continue strong as part of that Denver offensive scheme.

• You know I love Anquan Boldin. But I worry a little about Kurt Warner being able to stay healthy the entire season. Without him, Anquan will have trouble keeping those numbers. Kurt's a Super Bowl winner, a former MVP, and is no surprise. I just hope he can keep it going.

* Yes, you know a bunch of the Eagles really let DeSean Jackson have it after his stupid showboating. But don't you go and do something stupid about it. DeSean is the real deal, he's bulked up a little, and he's going to kill the league all year.

• Reggie Bush is number 5 right now at running back. I think he’s going to keep going higher, because I still love Drew Brees and New Orleans.

• And don't give up on Randy Moss just yet. It will take him a couple of weeks to get used to the new QB. But Cassel had a nice first game, and I think the Pats machine will continue to roll this season.

Playoff Intensity in Week 2

There was definitely a playoff atmosphere Monday night in Dallas. Great game by two great teams. I look for Philly to take the rematch though -- this will be the last game of the regular season for both. So mark your celandars, high noon eastern time on December 28th!

Lots of other real good games and great performances in Week 2. I credit Roger Goodell for bringing a new sense of purpose and discipline to the league. The players are responding, too. The NFL looks as strong today as it's ever looked.

This reminds me of 1983, when QBs John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly were all drafted, along with a couple of running backs named Eric Dickerson and Roger Craig! The excitement in the NFL this year is very similar to that, I think.

Big Games Coming Up in Week 2

I love playing Fantasy Football as much as anyone. But I think we should always remember that there are real football games being played here. I still love watching the NFL for the big games, not just because of my Fantasy guys.

So in Week 2 we already have some great games on tap. Here are some that I'll be sure not to miss...

* Dallas-Philadelphia (Monday night). One of the great NFC East rivalries. And they're both real good this year. We know the 'Boys would be real tough, but now it looks like Philly can challenge them. This is a great early-season test for both teams.

* Denver-San Diego. This is one of the most interesting games in Week 2. Are the Broncos that good? I think they are. Can San Diego recover from a shaky start? I gotta say that I have some concerns.

* Indianapolis-Minnesota. Two teams off to a shaky start. Peyton was really limping around out there against the Bears, and I have some concerns about the QB situation in Minnesota, too. This game will tell us a lot about both teams, and should also indicate what kind of numbers Adrian Peterson is really going to put up this year.

* New England-New York Jets. Wow. This game looks a lot different now than it did a month ago. How will the Pats do without Brady? And how much magic does Brett Favre still have?

"I'll Welcome Reggie into the 1000/1000 Club"

I was talking a little bit about running backs here. The big thing is, I wanted to shout out to Reggie Bush. I can see him joining Marshall Faulk and me as the only guys in the 1000/1000 club...and I hope he does some day.

"He Was Holding the Ball Too Long"

It's not rocket science to figure out that the Raiders looked real bad the other night. But I still want to watch DeMarcus Russell this year, and see how he develops. Right now, he's still got a steep learning curve.

"You Don't Make People Miss Like That in the NFL"

I was stunned by watching Eddie Royal the other night, as I say here. I also have some comments on my guy DeSean Jackson. I'm telling you, this kid can play, and he's lucky to have Donovan McNabb as his QB.

"Big Backs Make Big Targets"

Here are some of my thoughts about running backs after Week 1. You can see I'm a big believer in consistency, and Spotfire helps me track those real consistent backs like Westbrook.

Playing With Purpose (Video Version)

Here are a bunch of comments I made about some of the quarterbacks in Week 1. Check out what I have to say about Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, and the quality of Aaron Rodgers' Lambeau Leap!

Playing with Purpose

Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb were a couple of great surprises in Week 1. I thought Jay was going to have a good year, and I had hopes for Donovan. But I didn't pick either one in my top five QBs in pre-season.

But I'll tell you why they are looking so good--they're playing with purpose.

Once Jay found out he had diabetes, he realized that his career could end at any time, and he really started taking care of himself. He is playing with commitment, inner drive, and fire. With Shanahan's ability to deliver a great offense for Denver, look for Jay to be strong the entire season.

Donovan, like I said below, got himself into tremendous shape over the summer. He knows that he can't play forever, and he's got some great weapons in his offense. Donovan is playing with purpose. It will be great to see him on the Monday night stage this week against the 'Boys.

Another guy with inner drive, and I think some anger, is Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He was out there Sunday telling the Packer fans and the world that he can replace Brett Favre, that he's a pretty good quarterback too!

Don't Forget the NFL With Your FFL!

Hey, I'll have some new video posted here soon. So look for that.

Meanwhile, let's talk about some of the teams that emerged. I know this is a Fantasy Football League blog, but let's not forget the real games from the NFL.

I'm saying this because there were some teams that looked intense, and the key players from these teams are going to be FFL stars this season.

I'm talking about the Eagles for one thing. Donovan McNabb worked out hard in Arizona all summer, and look at him, he's playing like he's 25 years old again.

If Donovan keeps this up, this means that Westbrook (my number one RB) and DeSean Jackson (one of my rookie sleepers) are going to be racking up big FFL numbers all season long. Philly could seriously challenge Dallas this year.

The Cowboys looked almost too good. So Romo, TO, and Witten didn't have the great FFL numbers this week...but they will. The 'Boys are the team to beat in the NFC.

So mark Monday night on your calendar. Dallas and Philly are already playing each other. This will be a great test for both teams.

Denver looked just great. Arizona looked real strong, with a nice offense with a lot of options and a QB (Warner) who knows how to stay within himself and manage the game. Pittsburgh looked great.

All these teams are already looking to have real good season...and this will drive the FFL numbers for their key players.

Week 1 is Done!

Well, it’s obvious that Tom Brady is the big story of the week, for the NFL and for Fantasy players. What a tough break for him, for the Pats, and for anyone who picked him in their FFL league!

The story today is that Tim Rattay (remember him, Niners fans?) might get a shot. Whatever the case, the old saying is that injuries are part of the game. No reason to obsess about the Brady injury, and there are a ton of other interesting stories from Week 1.

So let’s move on. Belichick will.

Beyond the Top 20 - My Sleeper Picks

Let's take a look beyond the Top 20 (or Top 10 in the case of the tight ends). There are a lot of interesting players who are rookies. And there are some guys who you might forget about because they're lost on a really good or really bad team, or maybe are getting their first real chance in the NFL this year.

Here's a little video with some of my sleeper picks for this year's FFL draft. We had some fun with this. Especially at the end, when I talk about kickers. :-)



Here are some thoughts on this subject that I've written down...

QBs
Trent Edwards, BUF - Watch out for Trent and the Bills this year. Not many saw him play at Stanford, but he’s good.

JT O’Sullivan, SF - He's got a swagger, and he's in a good system with Mike Martz. If he ends up as the starter, he’s a good sleeper pick.

RB
Darren McFadden, OAK – Not all college starts show up in the great shape they need to be in for the NFL. Darren did. He came in very well-conditioned, and he’s intense. He’s also being pushed by other backs in Oakland. And hey, he could be a double-threat. Let’s see if he throws a TD or two during the year.

WR
Dante Stallworth, CLE – Derek Anderson will be throwing it all over the place—to Braylon Edwards, to Kellen Winslow, and to Dante. A good sleeper pick.

DeSean Jackson, PHI - This kid can play football. Don't worry about his size, he's the real deal, and I expect a big year out of him.

TE
Kevin Boss, NYG - He was great in the Super Bowl. He was definitely making Shockey sweat a little. Now he can prove his worth over a full season.

Here's How Spotfire Works with Receivers

Check this out. I have a couple of Spotfire screens here about receivers. First the wide receivers (click on the image to enlarge it):



Randy's at the top for both points and consistency. But TO looks good, too. And I went with TO as my number one because I think he is going to have a HUGE year because of the QB, the system, and the team commitment to hard work in Dallas this year.

And here's a view of tight ends. That big green circle to the right is Kellen Winslow. You can see how consistent he is from this graphic.



So go check out Spotfire yourself. It's interactive and fun. You can take a test drive anytime you want!

The Big Boys - Let's Talk Tight Ends

A great tight end is the final piece to a great offense. I remember how fantastic it was to have Brent Jones on those great Niners teams. Today's game also has a bunch of very, very strong TEs. I've limited my picks to who I think are the Top 10.

1. Jason Witten DAL
2. Kellen Winslow CLE
3. Dallas Clark IND
4. Jeremy Shockey NO
5. Vernon Davis SF
*6. Antonio Gates SD
7. Tony Gonzalez KC
*8. Todd Heap BAL
9. Alge Crumpler TEN
10. Chris Cooley WAS

* These guys were injured when I made my picks. You can decide how important that is to you!

Here are a few more thoughts about three of these guys:
Tight Ends

1. Jason Witten, DAL – Not a tough choice. As solid a number 1 pick as Brady at quarterback.

4. Jeremy Shockey, NO - The man has something to prove, and he’s bringing a new, rededicated attitude to his new team. He'll have a great system down there, and Drew Brees will find him. His blocking for Reggie Bush will help the passing offense, too.

5. Vernon Davis, SF - I'm higher on Vernon than a lot of people. Mike Martz will help him a lot.

And here are a few words I had to say about Jason Witten and Jeremy Shockey:

Go Long - My Wide Receiver Picks

It's not tough to pick the absolute best receivers in today's game. But who is your number one? And what do you do after TO and Randy Moss?

Another BIG question here has to do with injuries. I had a little trouble here because so many of the receivers are injured as pre-season nears an end.

So I put an asterisk by the guys who are injured. I also put an asterisk by Steve Smith, who we all know has been suspended for two games.

OK, here are my picks ...

1. Terrell Owens DAL
2. Randy Moss NE
*3. Braylon Edwards CLE
4. Wes Welker NE
5. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
6. Reggie Wayne IND
*7. Chad Johnson
*8. Steve Smith CAR
*9. Marques Colston NO
*10. Andre Johnson HOU
*11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN
*12. Plaxico Burress NYG
13. Torry Holt STL
*14. Greg Jennings GB
15. Roy Williams DET
16. Santonio Holmes PIT
17. Hines Ward PIT
18. Anquan Boldin ARI
19. Calvin Johnson DET
*20. Marvin Harrison IND

I have some comments about a few of the receivers here --

1. Terrell Owens, DAL - A lot of guys have Randy Moss in this spot, but I’m going with TO. As with Romo, he’s in a great system with a great tradition, and the ‘Boys are working hard. Terell is in great shape and I’m looking for him to be a huge part of Romo’s breakout year.

2. Randy Moss, NE – Randy’s only one of a huge number of options for New England’s offense. So the overall success of this offense makes me move him below TO.

3. Braylon Edwards, CLE – He defines “go-to guy.”

4. Wes Welker, NE – See my comments about Randy. Wes is just great, but in New England he’s only one of many great options. He’s fast and he runs great routes. I love him.

9. Marques Colston, NO – He works very well with Brees. Look for a great year from him.

18. Anquan Boldin – He is so talented. Would be higher with a different quarterback.

And hey, we must have video! So here are a few more comments...

Running Backs and Spotfire

You know, it's easy to get emotional about running backs. So I've added a Spotfire screenshot here. It brings an analytical view to this process, which I think can be a big help. Average points per game is shown vertically. And the more consistent they are, the further right they are on the chart.

Spotfire is interactive and it's also fun. You should try it. Go ahead and take the Spotfire test drive.

http://spotfire.tibco.com/community/testdrive/

I've also provided some commentary in the video below about some of the RBs and why I placed them the way I did.

1. Brian Westbrook, PHI – The Spotfire analytics show that he is more consistent than Adrian Peterson. The truth is that my top three running backs are so close, you can’t go wrong with any of them.

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN – He is getting pushed hard on his own team by Chester Taylor. This gives a player a different mindset than when he’s totally secure as “the man.”

3. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD – He’s still the most talented all-around back in the NFL. But San Diego has big injury questions surrounding Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. LaDanian is going to see eight in the box a lot this year.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, BAL – Love this kid. He’s quick, fast, and explosive. He didn’t get as much love in high school (at De La Salle in the Bay Area) or at UCLA as he should have. He should get plenty after this year in the NFL.

5. Frank Gore, SF – You have to love Frank. He’ll have a good year with Mike Martz. Frank reminds me of Marshall Faulk, but more explosive. I’m going to be mentoring him a little this year. The league has discovered how good he is, so now he’s got a bull’s eye on both sides of his jersey. He will be carrying a big load once again for San Francisco.

6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – The Cal kid can be a beast. He’s really consistent, and Spotfire shows this. He’ll be great again this year.

10. Laurence Maroney, NE – This man scores touchdowns. He’s got a knack for it.

11. Julius Jones, SEA – Another good mid-round pick at number 11. He’s ready to have a great year in a good system under Holmgren. With Sean Alexander traded, Julius is now “the man.”

16. Steven Jackson, STL – A little low because he’s a big back who runs into people and he gets nicked up. It doesn’t matter how big you are in the NFL, the other guys are big, too.

Rush Rush Rush Baby!

Getting the right running backs is a huge deal, as you know.

So here we go...(* means injured right now. I leave it to you to decide how it affects your actual picks.)

1. Brian Westbrook PHI
2. Adrian Peterson MIN
*3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX
5. Frank Gore SF
6. Marshawn Lynch BUF
7. Joseph Addai IND
*8. Reggie Bush NO
*9. Ryan Grant GB
10. Laurence Maroney NE
11. Julius Jones SEA
12. Marion Barber DAL
13. Larry Johnson KC
14. Clinton Portis WAS
15. Willie Parker PIT
16. Steven Jackson STL
17. Jamal Lewis CLE
*18. Willis McGahee BAL
19. Brandon Jacobs NYG
20. Edgerrin James ARI

Some Words About My QB Picks

I won't comment on all 20 of my picks. But below are a few insights about some of the guys on the list. You can hear me talk about some of the guys at this YouTube video as well:



1. Tom Brady, NE - This is a no-brainer.

2. Drew Brees, NO – I think this is going to be New Orleans’ year. They’ve got the momentum and the system to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Drew’s going to be a big part of this.

3. Tony Romo, DAL - Jerry Jones has put him in a great position. He’s ready, he’s focused, and he’s got Deion Sanders mentoring him now. The Cowboys have good chemistry, they work hard, and hey, their tradition is real. It makes a difference.

7. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Yes, I have Aaron higher than Brett Favre. He badly wants to prove himself, and he’s working with a great offense. Remember, this kid beat USC when he was in college. I think his skills will translate well to the pros.

8. Jay Cutler, DEN - Shanahan’s system always delivers a 1,000-yard running back, and this is a big help to Jay. He’s mobile, and with the running game taking some heat off of him, he’ll be able to do what he does best.

9. Brett Favre, NYJ - On the other hand, I think things are not going to be easy for Brett. He’s in a tough, tough division and I’m not sure he’s ready to handle the microscope he’ll be under in New York.

11. John Kitna, DET - The middle of the draft is crucial in the real NFL and in Fantasy Football. So keep John in mind. He’s very consistent when he’s healthy. And he has some big (and big-time) receivers in Detroit.

18. Matt Leinart, ARI - There have been a lot of guys whose greatness in college just didn’t translate to the pro level. The game's a lot faster, and Matt’s got guys wanting to take his head off on a weekly basis in the NFL. He hasn’t proven himself to me yet.

My Fantasy League Quarterback Picks

OK, let's start with quarterbacks. Here are my Top 20.

I have an asterisk next to the guys who were injured when I made these ratings. You know the drill. Stay strong with Peyton if his injury doesn't bother you that much. If it bothers you, move on to someone else.

1. Tom Brady NE
2. Drew Brees NO
3. Tony Romo DAL
*4. Peyton Manning IND
5. Ben Roethlisberger PIT
6. Carson Palmer CIN
7. Aaron Rodgers GB
8. Jay Cutler DEN
9. Brett Favre NYJ
10. Eli Manning NYG
11. Jon Kitna DET
12. Derek Anderson CLE
*13. Donovan McNabb PHI
14. Vince Young TEN
*15. Jake Delhomme CAR
16. David Garrard JAX
17. Marc Bulger STL
18. Matt Leinart ARI
19. Jason Campbell WAS
20. Matt Schaub HOU

How I Use Spotfire Fantasy Football Test Drive

TIBCO Spotfire is, well, cool. That's it. Really cool. When this powerful analysis tool is applied to football data, it can let you explore endless statistical combinations by using a number of different filters. Like what RB scored the most fantasy points when getting under 15 carries again (how many teams now have multi-back sets?). Just to give you a taste of the tool, you can see in this picture the top performing RBs last year and some people might be surprised to see that Brian Westbrook was the best performer having just a few points less than LT, but with more consistency. You get some unexpected answers as you adjust things, and this is the point! Spotfire doesn't think for you, but it can really help your thinking.

The team pulled three years of football data into a demo that anyone can use. I've been using it to help me with my FFL predictions. One of the primary dashboards shows total fantasy points and consistency (IE, your best asset is someone who scores a lot the most often). So it can open your eyes to some guys who you might not think of at first.

Try it out - unless league champion isn't your objective this year.. Go to: The Spotfire Fantasy Footbal TestDrive site and get started!

Highlights from My Career

Here's a nice little video of me in high school, college, and the NFL. We created it for my recent induction into the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame. Enjoy!

It's Getting Exciting

There are more great players than ever in today’s NFL, and I’m starting to get excited about the coming season.

I’ve been watching a lot of players up close now that training camps have opened. Players today are faster than ever, and this speed is obvious even in practice conditions.

I still miss playing the game some days, but I don’t miss training camp for one second. No way!

Keep watching here as I combine my own thoughts with the help of Spotfire. I’ll be revealing some of my choice picks soon!

Spotfire Screen

An example of Spotfire in action. It’s a chart of dozens of current NFL running backs.
Hey, I know it’s hard to read here.

So go to http://spotfire.tibco.com/community/testdrive/

Click on the Fantasy Football tab and then the “get started” link. You’ll see the real deal there, and it’s interactive!

Fantasy Football Fundamentals

Hey, you probably wouldn’t be here if you weren’t already into Fantasy Football. But I have to tell you, I wasn’t always into it myself. So if you’re an FFL newbie, welcome!

Once I got hooked a few years ago, I found that managing an FFL team was almost as much fun as playing the game. The big difference is I haven’t hurt my hip or tweaked a knee or even jammed a finger the whole time!

So if you’re already a FFL pro, you can skip the rest of this post. But if you’re new, read on!

In Fantasy Football, you will be a team “owner” and will participate in a league. Someone will create your league, and guess what, this person is known as the commissioner. The commissioner invites other owners into the league, then each team participates in a draft.

The draft is a critical part! So be smart! In my FFL (Fantasy Football League), we draft a quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a tight end, a kicker and a defense. We also get a few bench positions. I won't be offering my opinions on the kickers and defenses (except when you’re on a real football field, stay away from them!)

Each week, my team will play head-to-head against another team in the league, with points awarded for players’ performance. You get more than one player per position, to account for injuries and to let you manage who you think will play best on any given week.

The teams with the best records advance to the playoffs, just like in the NFL. The details of all this vary from league to league. So feel free to argue with your commissioner and fellow owners about how things should play out in your league! That’s half the fun.

OK, let’s play some Fantasy Football!

My Playing Days

Having some fun during my playing days.

Post-Football

Here I am today. I love to hang out with my wife and kids. And I am into running, including the occasional marathon.

Welcome to The Roger Craig FFL Rush!

I will be adding my observations and making my predictions every week, as we enter what promises to be another Fan-Tastic NFL season.
Let’s have fun. And remember, it’s only a game! :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su5_oR7PiUY