What Difference Does Experience Make?

So everyone's getting pumped about the NFC and AFC Championship games on Sunday. Everyone's talking about the players, about the defenses, about the offenses, what have you.

But think about the head coaches for a minute. These guys have a huge effect on fantasy stats during the season--if the coach has designed a great offense with multiple threats, then fantasy stats will be good from players on that team.

But of course the coaches also have a huge effect on the real games. Especially when we reach the conference championships and Super Bowl.

Andy Reid is the only guy of the four who has been here before. Yeah, I know he gets knocked for losing at this level, but don't forget that to lose at this level you gotta get there first!

Tomlin, Whisenhunt, and Harbaugh are all second-year guys. You might have to go all the way back to Bill Walsh to find a head coach who made it to the Super Bowl--and won--so early in his career. And remember, Bill wasn't really young then, because he didn't get his break as a head coach until he was 44 years old.

Just thinking...how important is Andy Reid's experience in determining who's going to win this week-end and at the Super Bowl?

Crunch Time

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh did some HITTING over the week-end. It was good to see Big Ben in good form. I had him as my number 5 QB at the beginning of the season. Injuries made him a weak fantasy player this year, but it looks like he's healthy again.

Just like I thought, San Diego just didn't have enough without LT. The Chargers ended up having a good year and Phillip Rivers will be a top QB for many years. But we'll see if LT can get healthy again next season. Those toe injuries are nasty, and I think his toe injury caused his groin injury. It's a tough place to be and I got nothing but best wishes for him.

Philly-New York was a grudge match like we all thought it would be. You know, Eli Manning was a great Super Bowl champion last year and his teammates bust their tails for him. But look at the numbers, he was the Number 13 fantasy QB this year. He just didn't have enough to overcome Donovan, Westbrook, and that Philly defense.

It will be interesting to see if the Cards' firepower can overcome that defense. But whatever, I think Donovan is ready to lead Philly to another Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have strong, scary defenses. Pittsburgh has the edge on offense, even though Flacco has done a great job staying within himself as the Raven's QB. But the thing is, I like the Steelers' special teams, and I think this will be the difference in this game.

Now Let's Watch the Real Games

So the fantasy season has ended for most everyone, and I hope you had a good season. I know I did. Consistency, baby, consistency!

So now we can watch the playoffs and just enjoy the games. We don't have to worry about how our fantasy guys are doing.

This made me think about predicting some things. How will the great fantasy players do in the playoffs? Here are a few things:

* Baltimore-Tennesee. See here's an example of why I like to watch the real games in addition to watching my fantasy players. Neither of these teams had a single Top 10 fantasy player this year. But both teams made it this far, and the winner of this game has to be a favorite for the Super Bowl.

* Arizona-Carolina. And here's an example where fantasy football does matter haha! Kurt Warner was the top fantasy QB a lot of weeks. He ended up in the Top Five for the season. This was a real team offense. Larry Fitzgerald finished as the Number One receiver for the year, and both Breaston and Anquan made it into the Top 10.

For Carolina, DeAngelo Williams was the number one fantasy back. So expect all these guys to put up good numbers this week-end, because they are big-time players who base their whole year on playoff performance.

* Philadelphia-New York. Now for this game "throw out the record books" as they say. This is just Round 3 of the annual grudge match between these two hated rivals. Let's see who wants it more...New York as Defending Heavyweight Champ or Philly as the Comeback Kids?

* San Diego-Pittsburgh. This might be the most interesting game. Big Ben did not do well in fantasy, but that means nothing when it comes to a game like this. For San Diego, Phillip Rivers was the Number Two fantasy QB this year. But the big story will be whether Darren Sproles can continue to be the "biggest" back in the league.

Season in Review - QBs

Hey, I'll be taking a look at how the players finished vs. how I thought they'd do this year. I'll focus on the ones I got right! But you can see how the guys finished in all the information on the left side of the blog.

Let's start with quarterbacks. Injuries played a big role in determining the final rankings here.

When Tom Brady got hurt early, Drew Brees was my number one guy. And that's how he finished. He ran an offense with a lot of weapons, he's very accurate (like Joe Montana and Steve Young), and he was determined this year to show the league that he is The Man.

But I didn't see Phillip Rivers finishing number two, because of the injury concerns we all had about him. Matt Cassel was also a big surprise, of course, the way he filled in for Brady.

And who knew that Kurt Warner would step in for a struggling Matt Leinart and become an MVP candidate? I was worried all season about him getting hurt, but Kurt is a great pro, two-time MVP and Super Bowl Winner.

I did see Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers having very strong years, and they did. I thought Aaron would finish higher than Brett Favre, and he did. On the field, it was not Aaron's fault that the Packers forget how to play defense for much of the year.

It's fantastic to see all this young talent at the QB position in the NFL today. And the rivalry between Rivers and Cutler will be fun to watch for years.

Big Ben and Romo were both disappointments, for different reasons. I hope Ben can get completely healthy again some day, and it's going to be a long off-season for Romo and the Cowboys, with the way they just collapsed. I will think hard about where to place them next year, that's for sure.

Hey, I'm Back

Hi everyone, with Christmas coming up fast, I took a little break from the blog to take care of everyone on my shopping list. :-)

We're near the end of what I call Season Two ... the second half of the regular season. Fantasy players will have challenges now because a lot of players will be resting for the playoffs, which I call Season Three. Other players will be busting their tails to keep their jobs for next year, or to "audition" for maybe a job on a better team next year.

So the normal sit vs. start decisions get complicated. My advice is alwasy the same...look at who has been consistent and stick with them. You try too hard to pick that longshot guy and you will be disappointed most of the time.

If you have been a good general manager this year, then your fantasy results will take care of themselves. But if you have had a bad year, well you're not going to save your season with some miracle. Stay consistent, baby, that's what it's all about!

Merry Christmas

--RC 33

It Would Be Nice to Join the Elite HOF Team

I couldn't scream and jump up and down when I heard I had made HOF semi-finalist, because I was on a plane. I didn't want to get arrested or have to talk with a federal marshall!

But seriously, I was talking a little bit this week about all the things I did during my career with all those great players on the 49ers. I remember one of the highlights for me was making All-Pro as a fullback and blocking for my idol Walter Payton in the Pro Bowl. Later I made All-Pro as a running back. But you know, Coach Bill Walsh changed the game with his West Coast Offense. I was asked to do so many things in that offense, and I have nothing but great memories looking back on all that now.

Think About Pride and How It Affects Players

Fantasy players are fanatics about numbers. Me, too, and Spotfire helps me see whose numbers are the most consistent. But don't forget about pride. I don't care how much money you make, you don't want to be humiliated. You always want to perform your best for your fans, for your job security, and for the other players!

So I got into a long discussion about pride this week. Donovan McNabb is the best example. You saw what he did a week after being humiliated on national TV. Michael Turner is another one. He was second-string behind LT at San Diego. This year with Atlnata he wants to prove every week that he really is one of the best backs in the NFL.

This video has a little bit of that discussion. I also talk about Brett Favre and Frank Gore and how these guys work at the elite NFL level.